"Why TSR egg research likely will never publish a shiny Pichu rate"

#PokemonGO: TL;DR We would need to hatch in the region of 200K to over a million eggs to get a good enough approximation/u/CLA45 asked an intersting quesyion in the thread here:So what is the chance of the TSR egg research to publish a number soon? Well - I'm afraid to say that this won't happen unless Niantic changes the game or TSR research can evaluate the shiny rate in a different way.The reason is simple - too much data would be needed. I did a quick back-of-the envelop calculation (some trial/error in Edxel).Here is my only assumptions: we want to know the value to at least +/- 20% with a 90% confidence interval. We would need to hatch around 65-70 shiny Pichus to get to this level of accuracy. One out of 30+ eggs (on average) is a Pichu. This yields the following numbersChanceShiny Pichu neededPichu neededTotal eggs needed to hatch1 out of 100656.500200.000+1 out of 2006513.000400.000+1 out of 3006518.500600.000+1 out of 4006527.000800.000+1 out of 5006533.5001 million+To put it into context - the our last TSR egg hatch chart was based on 6500 hatched eggs - that is total eggs hatched.This is a generic problem with low chances. The lower the chance, the more data is needed and the higher the chance of biased reporting.I do some generous rounding to get round numbers. This is a back of the envelop calculations - it doesn't matter if real numbers might be a few% higher or not for the actual argument. I'm also aware that the distribution is not perfectly symmetrical and that we need slightly less eggs total to get the -20% inside the confidence interval compared to the +20%. via /r/TheSilphRoad http://ift.tt/2x8pRvL