"Chances of Wally killing a shiny ralts"

In the generation three games, wally can encounter a shiny ralts. The odds are what you would expect - 1/8192. However, he can also kill a ralts - something that I, and probably the majority of people, don't know the chances of. So I'm going to calculate the chances of wally killing a normal ralts and times that by 8192.Wally is given a level 7 Zigzagoon to fight a level 5 ralts. Zigzagoon can't crit the ralts, and, if I remember correctly, always has a neutral nature. With that out of the way, on to the maths:Zigzagoon has to have 11 attack, which means it has to have an Attack IV of 26 or higher, which is a 182/800 chance.While the Zigzagoons nature is predetermined, the ralts isn't. We need it to have a defense lowering nature, which is a 4/25 chance.This ralts needs an HP IV of 3 or lower (4/32) and a defense IV of 5 or lower (6/32).Now, we need max rolls. The zigzagoon has a 5/16 chance of dealing 10 damage (the max roll). After ralts uses growl (it's only move) Zigzagoon has a 7/16 chance of doing 7 damage (the max roll). Ralts, with only 3 HP IV's or less, only has 17 health. Therefore, 10+7=17 and zigzagoon will kill it.182/8004/254/326/325/16*7/16 = approximately 1/8574.8574*8192 = 1/70,238,208 chance of Wally killing a shiny raltsWhich is actually less than what I was expecting, if I'm honest - and if Zigzagoons nature isn't predetermined, then it's even higher!EDIT: This does NOT work in Omega Ruby and Alpha Sapphire via /r/pokemon https://ift.tt/2vEwHZQ