"Explaining why there is no clear winner between Lick and Shadow Claw"

#PokemonGO: TL;DR Both Shadow Claw and Lick have their places in raid meta. There is no one choice fits all. Lick will tend to be the better option when using a non Ghost charge move. Shadow Claw will tend to be the better option when using Shadow Ball. Either way, Lick is MUCH better than Hex. Even if you have Shadow Claw Gengar, you will want Lick Gengar as well.Thankfully, we will all have the opportunity for Lick Gengar this weekend! Several threads (here, here, and here) have popped up with plenty of discussion about Lick vs. Shadow Claw. Gamepress' impressive TDO/DPS Spreadsheet lists the following in neutral weather.​DPSLick Shadow Ball17.827Shadow Claw Shadow Ball17.749Shadow Claw Sludge Bomb17.072Lick Sludge Bomb17.025Neutral DPS margains of .1 are much too small to conclusively say which move is better, you must look at real situations. First, here's the obvious.Gengar is a horrible gym attacker.I feel this is fairly obvious as gyms are often stacked with Normal type defenders which resists Ghost but it should be said anyways. There may be extremely niche situations where Gengar is the best gym attacker; however, this is so rare that I won't even look into Gengar as a gym attacker. If I had to guess I'd point to Lick's EPS and suggest faster spamming of Shadow Ball would put it ahead of Shadow Claw. Like I said, this is an extremely unlikely case.​When using Sludge Bomb (or any non shadow ball charge move), Lick is the superior choice.Gengar is a common choice for many raids. Lick outperforms Shadow Claw in cloudy and in neutral weather. Pokebattler lists the average TTW difference as 7 or 8 seconds, a hefty chunk of time to speed raiders. In fog, Shadow Claw very narrowly outperforms Lick (who gets fog?) GoBattleSim appears to confirm these numbers. What about the upper extremities of this scenario, not just averages? Let's look at an ideal scenario for setting a time. Tangela in cloudy with Infestation Solar Beam. The top 5% of Lick Sludge Bomb runs cut 8 seconds off of the average time and the top 2% of runs cut a full 10 seconds off. From 139 to 131 to 129. The top 5% of Shadow Claw Sludge Bomb runs cut 3 seconds off of the average time and the top 2% of runs cut 4 seconds off. From 143 to 140 to 139.Not only do we see that Lick has a better average TTW, but it also has better runs at the top 2-5% of raids. (The standard deviation for Lick is not normally distributed. While 5% cuts 8 seconds off the average, 95% only adds 6 seconds to the average. 2% cuts 10 seconds off the average, 98% only adds 6 seconds to the average.) This is a great case example of what everyone is referring to when they talk about EPS - Energy Per Second. Similar to Psycho Cut on Mewtwo instead of Confusion, when using Gengar for a non-ghost charge move, Lick seems like the solid winner.What about when we want to pair Lick or Shadow Claw with Shadow Ball for maximum Ghost damage?The answer here is not quite simple but it does exist. Let's look at some real examples.​Raid boss with Gengar as a top counterWhich is better, Lick or Shadow Claw?Claydol - a difficult tier 3Shadow Claw both unboosted & boostedAlolan Raichu - a seemingly mainstay amongst tier 3Shadow Claw both unboosted & boostedAlakazam - Gengar is slightly behind SB MewtwoSeemingly equal unboosted & boostedStarmieShadow Claw both unboosted & boostedSolrockLick by 1 second unboosted, Shadow Claw by 5 seconds boostedMewtwo T6 (No friend boost)Shadow Claw by 40 seconds unboosted but only by 8 seconds boostedMewtwo T6 (Ultra friend boost)Shadow Claw by 25 seconds unboosted & boostedMewtwo T6 (Best friend boost)Shadow Claw by 20 seconds unboosted & boostedWhat causes Shadow Claw to outperform Lick most of the time? What causes Lick to struggle to keep up with Shadow Claw? The answer has been largely forgotten (but not completely forgotten) in most of the conversation. BREAKPOINTS! Breakpoints are what rule raids. Yes, Lick is an extremely fast quick move that has high EPS and makes dodging more possible for older phones, but this is what ultimately makes Shadow Claw the superior move in most situations. Lick suffers the same fate as other moves, like Bite on Tyranitar, Mud Shot on Groudon, and Vine Whip of Venusaur. While they are all some of the top of their type, they suffer tremendously. Friend bonuses may not even give them a new breakpoint to reach. The three best and slowest quick moves, Confusion, Waterfall, and Smack Down are all big winners because of breakpoints. While difficult to dodge, their final breakpoints usually rest above level 35. Friend bonuses will give them 3 or sometimes even 4 additional damage points to every single quick move that they use. This is the main reason that Shadow Claw will outperform Lick so often.What about those times when Lick gets lucky and has a last breakpoint around level 39 or level 40? This can be seen with Alakazam and even then it does not make Lick a clear cut winner it simply elevates it to Shadow Claw.​While Gengar has no one size fits all moveset like many of the top attackers, Lick is generally better when Gengar is used as a non Ghost attacker, and Shadow Claw is usually better when Gengar is used as a Ghost attacker. Lick's EPS can not make up for it's lack of breakpoints. Lick will always be better than Hex.E: all numbers come from Pokebattler unless otherwise said via /r/TheSilphRoad https://ift.tt/2OXdcIv