"[Analysis] Very early look at the fairy fast move Charm in the PvE meta"

#PokemonGO: A few days ago, new moves were discovered in the APK for 0.145.0. The most notable one is Charm, the first fairy-type fast move in the game.Folks were immediately hyped about Charm being a potential move for Gardevoir and other existing fairy types. It's no secret that Ralts is one of the most likely candidates for a Community Day, and whether it receives Charm as a CD exclusive move or as a permanent fast move, it will no doubt become the best fairy-type attacker currently available in the game. But how relevant will Gardevoir (and others) be with Charm, exactly? Will it become a useful counter against something in the future, or will it be just a gimmick that doesn't do much in the meta?Tl;dr:Fairy types face stiff competition from fighting, dragon and psychic types in terms of DPS even with a fast move. But against dragon bosses with dragon moves, Gardevoir could potentially become a top-tier counter with very few deaths, even better than Rayquaza in certain situations.In cloudy weather, Gardevoir rises to a clear #1 against dragon movesets and against all fighting bosses.Gardevoir or Togekiss with a fairy fast move should outperform Sylveon, in case you're saving your Eevee for 2 years.Important note: I'm not speculating how Charm will be implemented, e.g. which Pokémon can learn it and whether it will be a permanent move or a Community Day exclusive move. Likewise, I'm also not considering other potential fast moves such as Fairy Wind. This post is solely about what will happen to PvE-relevant fairy types if they get a fairy fast move, regardless of what the move is and how they get it.About CharmThis post sums up some facts about Charm pretty well. It's a non-damaging status move) in the main series, which lowers the target's attack by 2 stages. Charm is confirmed to be a fast move in Go, though, so we can forget about its potential PvP effects for now (unless they end up implementing buffs/debuffs for fast moves).Charm is quite a common move in the main series, and many fairy and non-fairy Pokémon can learn it. Current final-stage fairy-type Pokémon in Go who can potentially learn it are: Clefable, Wigglytuff, Mr. Mime, Granbull, Azumarill, Gardevoir, Togekiss. Of these Pokémon, Gardevoir and Togekiss are the only ones with good enough attack stat to be worth considering as a fairy-type attacker, hence I will only consider these two Pokémon in this post. (Granbull has acceptable stats but ultimately falls a bit short of viability.)Future final-stage fairy Pokémon that can learn Charm in Gen 5-7: Whimsicott (Gen 5), Sylveon, Aromatisse, Dedenne (Gen 6), Primarina, Mimikyu (Gen 7). Among these, Primarina is the only one that can compete with Gardevoir and Togekiss with the same moves. Note that other fairy Pokémon might still learn other fairy fast moves, such as Fairy Wind.MethodologySo, going back to the question: How relevant will Gardevoir be with Charm? It's impossible to answer it precisely at this moment - even though Charm has been added to the APK, its stats have not been reflected in the Game Master yet. However, we can approximate how good it will be by looking at the whole spectrum of fast moves. Specifically, in this post I use a hypothetical Charm that is a clone of the following moves:Counter (DPS-oriented with good EPS, very good move)Confusion (DPS-oriented, good move)Fury Cutter (EPS-oriented, good move)Smack Down (DPS-oriented, average move, given as CD move before)Thunder Shock (EPS-oriented, average move)Mud-Slap (DPS-oriented, bad move)Bullet Seed (EPS-oriented, bad move)(I selected both DPS and EPS-oriented moves from the spectrum, since there have been talks about how Charm might deal little damage but generate good energy, considering it's non-damaging in the MSG.)Then I compare the hypothetical Gardevoir and Togekiss with these moves among competitors from other types when fighting against Dark, Dragon and Fighting-type bosses. All numbers are generated from the GamePress DPS/TDO Spreadsheet, and are against an arbitrary opponent unless stated otherwise.Note: Since Charm doesn't deal any damage in the main games (like Splash and Yawn), it's possible it will have a power of 0 in Go. I'll discuss this possibility in later sections.Against Dark typesPokemonFast MoveCharged MoveDPSTDODPS^3*TDOBreloomCounterDynamic Punch26.27492.88933.6MachampCounterDynamic Punch25.695688.811684.7GardevoirCharm-CounterDazzling Gleam24.565658.79765.1BlazikenCounterFocus Blast24.386541.27848.4HariyamaCounterDynamic Punch24.071683.19526.7GardevoirCharm-ConfusionDazzling Gleam23.997643.58892.8GardevoirCharm-Fury CutterDazzling Gleam23.912641.28766.7ToxicroakCounterDynamic Punch23.5995096689.2GardevoirCharm-Thunder ShockDazzling Gleam23.519630.78204.3GardevoirCharm-Smack DownDazzling Gleam23.451628.88109.8TogekissCharm-CounterDazzling Gleam23.398802.410277.8TogekissCharm-ConfusionDazzling Gleam22.871784.39383.8TogekissCharm-Fury CutterDazzling Gleam22.78781.29234.4LucarioCounterClose Combat22.716468.75494HeracrossCounterClose Combat22.58623.27173.9GardevoirCharm-Mud-SlapDazzling Gleam22.519603.86895.5TogekissCharm-Thunder ShockDazzling Gleam22.404768.38639.3GardevoirCharm-Bullet SeedDazzling Gleam22.402600.76753.5TogekissCharm-Smack DownDazzling Gleam22.331765.88528.6PinsirBug BiteX-Scissor22.09537.65794.4ScizorFury CutterX-Scissor21.535547.75470.2TogekissCharm-Mud-SlapDazzling Gleam21.455735.77265.9TogekissCharm-Bullet SeedDazzling Gleam21.352732.27127.7Thanks to the high and mighty Machamp, the dark counters scene won't change at all even though fairy is Super Effective to it. Even in the best case scenario, Gardevoir still trails behind Machamp in both DPS and TDO, while an average Charm will put it down to Toxicroak level. Togekiss has better bulk than Machamp and even Hariyama, but it lacks too much DPS to stand out other than being a usable anchor (still won't be significantly better than Machamp in most cases).What really hurts Gardevoir's viability here is that it takes neutral damage from dark-type moves while the fighting types resist it. As an example, here are partial results against Darkrai with Snarl and two charged moves:PokemonFast MoveCharged MoveDPS (Dark Pulse)TDO (Dark Pulse)DPS (Focus Blast)TDO (Focus Blast)BreloomCounterDynamic Punch24.389447.924.516305.5MachampCounterDynamic Punch24.086631.124.511436GardevoirCharm-CounterDazzling Gleam23.36384.523.025689GardevoirCharm-Fury CutterDazzling Gleam22.769347.822.39670GardevoirCharm-ConfusionDazzling Gleam22.75347.522.472672.5BlazikenCounterFocus Blast22.73494.122.401330.4HariyamaCounterDynamic Punch22.492627.123.19438.3Against Dark Pulse Darkrai, Gardevoir is left with 61% of Machamp's TDO at best, and becomes even glassier than Breloom! That makes it not viable in this particular scenario. On the other hand, against Focus Blast is where Gardevoir's psychic resistance becomes notable: it has 58% more TDO than Machamp in the best case with Charm being a Counter clone. However, that still doesn't give Gardevoir a better Time to Win than Machamp.Against Dragon typesPokemonFast MoveCharged MoveDPSTDODPS^3*TDORayquazaDragon TailOutrage29.711869.722811SalamenceDragon TailOutrage29.057852.420911.7PalkiaDragon TailDraco Meteor28.427925.621261.8DragoniteDragon TailOutrage27.387906.818626.6GarchompDragon TailOutrage27.3261001.920443.8DialgaDragon BreathDraco Meteor26.86692717975.5MamoswinePowder SnowAvalanche25.42373011996.1LatiosDragon BreathDragon Claw25.316817.613265.2GardevoirCharm-CounterDazzling Gleam24.565658.79765.1WeavileIce ShardAvalanche24.343587.68476.2GardevoirCharm-ConfusionDazzling Gleam23.997643.58892.8GardevoirCharm-Fury CutterDazzling Gleam23.912641.28766.7GlaceonFrost BreathAvalanche23.87648.78823.3GardevoirCharm-Thunder ShockDazzling Gleam23.519630.78204.3GardevoirCharm-Smack DownDazzling Gleam23.451628.88109.8TogekissCharm-CounterDazzling Gleam23.398802.410277.8JynxFrost BreathAvalanche22.926470.15664.7LatiasDragon BreathOutrage22.91850.710229.6TogekissCharm-ConfusionDazzling Gleam22.871784.39383.8TogekissCharm-Fury CutterDazzling Gleam22.78781.29234.4GardevoirCharm-Mud-SlapDazzling Gleam22.519603.86895.5Alolan ExeggutorDragon TailDragon Pulse22.413603.66795.8TogekissCharm-Thunder ShockDazzling Gleam22.404768.38639.3GardevoirCharm-Bullet SeedDazzling Gleam22.402600.76753.5TogekissCharm-Smack DownDazzling Gleam22.331765.88528.6MewtwoPsycho CutIce Beam22.3698.17741.6Giratina-OriginDragon TailDragon Pulse21.859916.29569.9TogekissCharm-Mud-SlapDazzling Gleam21.455735.77265.9TogekissCharm-Bullet SeedDazzling Gleam21.352732.27127.7In the analysis below I do not consider Salamence with both Draco Meteor and Outrage, since it complicates the discussion too much.Fairy types face a similar problem against dragon types: its competitors, this time the dragons and even Mamoswine, simply have too high DPS. If you have a team of dragons and ice types (which is hopefully trivial if you haven't missed recent CDs), you probably don't want to power up 6 Gardevoirs just for its DPS alone - at best it's on Weavile/Glaceon level.One particular scenario where fairy types shine, though, is against dragon-type bosses with dragon moves. Remember Draco Meteor Palkia, which one hit KO'ed all relevant counters? Now, an important fact: Fairy types double resist dragon moves. Here's how fairy types perform against Dragon Tail/Draco Meteor Palkia (with some dragons and some movesets omitted):PokemonFast MoveCharged MoveDPSTDODPS^3*TDORayquazaDragon TailOutrage26.62237.84486.4DragoniteDragon TailOutrage24.797250.33816.9DialgaDragon BreathDraco Meteor23.224388.94870.7GardevoirCharm-CounterDazzling Gleam21.299697.16735GardevoirCharm-ConfusionDazzling Gleam20.781680.16103.8TogekissCharm-CounterDazzling Gleam20.341848.77142.3GardevoirCharm-Smack DownDazzling Gleam20.268663.35522.6TogekissCharm-ConfusionDazzling Gleam19.858828.66488.8Gardevoir and Togekiss' DPS still trails way below the supreme dragons, but Gardevoir has almost 3 times of Rayquaza's TDO and Togekiss 3.5 times! Let's look at the GoBattleSim simulations (average of 1000 runs, 3 players, best friends, no weather, no dodge):PokemonTime (s)DPS# deathsRayquaza231.0265.3634.69Dialga248.0360.5830.59Gardevoir (Counter)224.8866.9415.22Gardevoir (Confusion)226.0466.5915.21Gardevoir (Smack Down)238.5363.1116.16Togekiss (Counter)228.7765.7612.44Togekiss (Confusion)233.7164.3712.42Togekiss (Smack Down)242.3962.0112.84In the most ideal situation, Gardevoir would actually beat Rayquaza by about 6 seconds! Even with a mediocre Charm, Gardevoir still has only slightly worse TTW as Rayquaza but significantly fewer number of deaths, to the extent that it doesn't even need to relobby.(Take the sims with a grain of salt, though, as they're just simulations. In fact, in Pokebattler Dialga's TTW is actually ahead of Rayquaza's, with Rayquaza having an whooping 56 deaths. Not sure what's going on here, but Gardevoir's actual performance may be even better than what's suggested above.)It should be noted this only applies to bosses with dragon moves. Against Hydro Pump Palkia, Gardevoir's TTW trails way behind Rayquaza with similar number of deaths. Also, Gardevoir is less outstanding against bosses with multibar dragon charged moves or bosses with lower attack (takes up to 10 seconds longer than Rayquaza), but in the best case still similar to Dragonite with an insanely low number of deaths. A mixed Rayquaza/Gardevoir party, however, could situationally be comparable to 6 Rayquazas but with much fewer deaths, if Charm is as good as Counter.[I also ran some simulations against Latias, which can be found in later sections.]Against Fighting typesNote: I'm ignoring any versions of Charm that's significantly worse than Confusion/Dazzling Gleam Gardevoir and Air Slash/Dazzling Gleam Togekiss, respectively.PokemonFast MoveCharged MoveDPSTDODPS^3*TDODeoxys-AttackZen HeadbuttPsycho Boost30.983199.45929.1HonchkrowPeckSky Attack26.584522.59816.1MewtwoConfusionPsychic26.318823.915019.9AzelfConfusionFuture Sight25.868584.110110.9AlakazamConfusionFuture Sight25.49518.38584.2EspeonConfusionFuture Sight24.821582.68908.7Deoxys-NormalZen HeadbuttPsycho Boost24.784339.95174.1RayquazaAir SlashAerial Ace24.568719.210664.9GardevoirCharm-CounterDazzling Gleam24.565658.79765.1GardevoirConfusionDazzling Gleam23.997643.58892.8GardevoirCharm-Fury CutterDazzling Gleam23.912641.28766.7MoltresFire SpinSky Attack23.467708.69157.2TogekissCharm-CounterDazzling Gleam23.398802.410277.8TogekissCharm-ConfusionDazzling Gleam22.871784.39383.8TogekissCharm-Fury CutterDazzling Gleam22.78781.29234.4TogekissCharm-Thunder ShockDazzling Gleam22.404768.38639.3TogekissCharm-Smack DownDazzling Gleam22.331765.88528.6TogekissAir SlashDazzling Gleam22.005754.68040.5This section is not so exciting because Gardevoir already has Confusion that's Super Effective against fighting, and similarly Togekiss has Air Slash. The most ideal scenario will still only put Gardevoir at Espeon level (bulkier and slightly better than Espeon if the boss has fighting moves due to the double resistance). Despite Togekiss being bulky, it would still need a lot to have a comparable TTW to the glass cannons.One thing to remember is that if a Ralts CD happens, new players can easily get a full team of Gardevoir to solo Machamp raids. This would be even easier than evolving 6 Espeons, and also costs much fewer revives (unless Machamp has steel moves).What about weather boost?Fairy moves are boosted in cloudy weather, which is common in many areas. Not surprisingly, this improves fairy types' utilities by a lot.Against dragon types, Gardevoir will now have Salamence-level DPS with a good Charm, and still Palkia-level DPS with an average one. But don't forget what made it useful in the first place: double resistance to dragon moves. This means in cloudy weather, Gardevoir becomes the undisputable best counter against dragons with dragon moves, while still among the best counters against other movesets.Let's look at Latias. It's a weak hitting boss whose attacks are kind enough for Rayquaza to survive, hence outperform Gardevoir in neutral weather despite a disadvantage in typing. But in cloudy weather, even a Bullet Seed clone will make Gardevoir easily outperform Rayquaza against DB/Outrage Latias; against ZH/Psychic Latias the DPS difference is more pronounced, but even an average Charm still earns weather boosted Gardevoir a place in the top counters with Dragonite-level performance.PokemonTime against DB/O (s)# deathsTime against ZH/P (s)# deathsRayquaza274.5438.56251.4823.64Gardevoir (Counter) - extreme280.5816.25289.4219.57Gardevoir (Counter) - cloudy230.3913.49237.0816.39Gardevoir (Smack Down) - extreme307.3317.58311.5321.37Gardevoir (Smack Down) - cloudy243.914.51261.5518.06(It should be noted that Gardevoir still resists Latias' psychic moves, which gives it a bit of advantage against ZH/P.)While it's tough to compete against dragons, that won't be a problem against fighting types. In cloudy weather, Gardevoir and Togekiss easily outclass Mewtwo (note that Gardevoir with Confusion is already quite comparable with Mewtwo in cloudy):PokemonFast MoveCharged MoveDPSTDODeoxys-AttackZen HeadbuttPsycho Boost30.983199.4GardevoirCharm-CounterDazzling Gleam29.405788.5GardevoirCharm-ConfusionDazzling Gleam28.75770.9GardevoirCharm-Smack DownDazzling Gleam28.079752.9TogekissCharm-CounterDazzling Gleam28.005960.3TogekissCharm-ConfusionDazzling Gleam27.399939.6GardevoirConfusionDazzling Gleam27.136727.6TogekissCharm-Smack DownDazzling Gleam26.736916.9HonchkrowPeckSky Attack26.584522.5MewtwoConfusionPsychic26.318823.9No explanations needed here.Weather boost is not so useful for fairy attackers against dark types, because their main competitor, fighting types (aka Machamp atm), are also weather boosted.What if Charm deals no damage?Remember, Charm is a status move that doesn't deal any damage in the main games. Other similar moves like Splash and Yawn were all implemented with 0 power in Go. What if Charm becomes such a move as well? This is probably not the scenario that people would like to see; nevertheless, it might be worth considering if it has extremely high Energy per Second (EPS).Here, I consider a hypothetical Charm with a duration of 0.7s (same as Shadow Claw), and a power of 8, 10, 15, 20, 25 and 30. That translates to EPS of 11.4, 14.3, 21.4, 28.6, 35.7, 42.9, respectively. To put things into perspective, the highest EPS move currently in game is Present (15.38), followed by Fury Cutter and Powder Snow (15). Splash and Yawn have EPS of 11.56 and 8.82, respectively.Pokémon & MoveDPSTDOComparable against darkComparable against dragonComparable against fightingGardevoir (Charm-8)17.762476.3BeautiflyFroslassXatuGardevoir (Charm-10)19.37519.4worse PrimeapeSneasel, worse KingdraHo-Oh, CelebiGardevoir (Charm-15)22.265597PinsirIce Beam Mewtwo, worse Alolan Exeggutorbetter LatiosGardevoir (Charm-20)24.195648.8HariyamaWeavileConfusion GardevoirGardevoir (Charm-25)25.574685.8MachampMamoswine, better LatiosAlakazamGardevoir (Charm-30)26.608713.5better MachampDialgaMewtwoTogekiss (Charm-8)16.91579.9HitmontopRegiceChimechoTogekiss (Charm-10)18.452632.8PoliwrathCloysterUrsaringTogekiss (Charm-15)21.228728Ursaringworse Giratina, better FlygonJynx, ZH/Psychic MetagrossTogekiss (Charm-20)23.079791.4worse ToxicroakJynx, Latiasworse Moltres, worse Psychic AlakazamTogekiss (Charm-25)24.401836.8Blaziken, better HariyamaWeavilebetter Confusion GardevoirTogekiss (Charm-30)25.392870.8worse MachampMamoswine, LatiosAlakazamSo with this particular duration of 0.7s, Charm needs to have a power of at least 15-20 for Gardevoir to be worth considering as a second-tier attacker (due to heavy competition from other types.) That translates to an EPS of 25 or higher, which is insane. A power of 25 (EPS 35.7) or 30 (EPS 42.9) will make Gardevoir a top-tier counter, but that's completely unrealistic.Sure, given how many Community Day moves were OP, it's possible Charm will have an insane, unimaginable EPS... But don't forget Smack Down was also introduced on CD and it's nowhere close to that level. I wouldn't place too much thought on those crazy numbers yet.What are fairy types useful for?I bet few people have paid any attention to fairy type's place in the meta. However, it actually does Super Effective damage against many past and future raid bosses: (Bosses with another double weakness are omitted)Legendaries: Latias, Latios (Gen 3), Palkia, Giratina (Gen 4), Terrakion, Zekrom, Kyurem (Gen 5), Yveltal (Gen 6), Ultra Necrozma (Gen 7)Mythicals (in case released in EX raids): Darkrai (Gen 4), Keldeo, Meloetta-Pirouette (Gen 5), Hoopa-Unbound (Gen 6), Marshadow (Gen 7)Ultra Beasts: Guzzlord (2x)In particular, Zekrom with double dragon moves might be the best time for Gardevoir to shine. It's weak to dragon, ice, fairy and ground, of which only fairy resists dragon moves. Depending on what moves Zekrom get, it might be another Draco Meteor Palkia situation, potentially making Gardevoir one of the top picks against double dragon Zekrom. (This is all assuming it gets a decent Charm, of course.)Looking aheadWe won't see any competitive fairy types until Gen 6, when the legendary Xerneas comes to play. Unfortunately, it doesn't learn Charm or Fairy Wind, so it might not receive a fairy fast move in Go; however, now that the precedence has been set, it's possible to implement one of the status moves Xerneas can learn as a fast move, including its signature move Geomancy. Gen 7's legendary guardian deities (the Tapus) also have amazing stats, but the lack of a fast move is still a major problem.Assuming Charm is at least usable when compared to other potential fairy fast moves (e.g. Fairy Wind), Gardevoir should face no competition as the top-DPS non-legendary fairy attacker. However, Gen 7's Primarina could come close with slightly better bulk, and it also learns Charm. It could also out-DPS Togekiss by a margin, though the latter still has good bulk to go for it.More on the future meta in a later post. Spoiler: Despite popular beliefs, Sylveon won't be relevant in the top-tier meta.ConclusionDespite being highly anticipated for years, a fairy fast move won't be meta-breaking (like adding Smack Down to Tyranitar was). Gardevoir and Togekiss with Charm will still be good attackers, just that with the meta already being so competitive, they won't become the "best of the best" in most situations. But they do have a niche against dragons, especially with dragon movesets, where their resistances and extremely few deaths allow them to rival even the top-tier dragons.One thing that's often overlooked is Community Day Pokémon are easily available to most casual players. If Ralts ever gets a CD - and chances are it will sooner than later - Gardevoir can come in handy for players that do not have full teams of Machamps, Rayquazas and Mewtwos available. It's also an immediately useful counter in Machamp raids which are important to new players, and in many dragon raids which are some of the most common T5 raids. And of course, being a fan favorite is a huge bonus :)​Edit: Formatting via /r/TheSilphRoad http://bit.ly/2JXpFJj