"PSA: Item rewards from shortmanning raids are NOT nerfed, despite possibly fewer balls"

#PokemonGO: TL;DR: Even though shortmanners miss out on Speed Bonus balls, they get exactly the same number of reward bundles (8 or 7) as before. This is because conversion from Premier Balls to reward bundles was changed, and Speed Bonus does NOT count towards item rewards. If anything, the new system makes Individual Bonus and Gym Control matter even more.When mega raids were launched, Niantic changed the reward system for regular T5 raids as well, most notably removing the Team Bonus and replacing it with Speed Bonus. Over the past few days, I've seen people complaining everywhere on this sub about how their raid rewards are "nerfed" or that Niantic now "discourages" shortmanning raids.That's a huge myth. Such comments were before we knew exactly how raid rewards worked under the new system. That has now been known thanks to this post by u/dieselmachine. Most notably, it seems that Speed Bonus balls does NOT count towards reward bundles, just like Friendship Bonus balls.The old systemFirst, let's establish some basics. Here were the premier ball breakdown from the old raid rewards: (Bold indicates balls that count towards reward bundles)Boss defeated: 6Individual bonus: 320% damage for 3 balls, 15% for 2 balls, 5% for 1 ballTeam bonus: 3Gym control: 2Friendship: 4Max balls: 18, Max rewardable balls: 14And here was how the number of reward bundles was determined by rewardable balls in T5 raids:Rewardable balls67-89-1011-1213-14Reward bundles45678Each bundle can contain: 3 Rare Candies, 3 Hyper Potions, 3 Revives, 1 Fast TM, 1 Charged TM, 2 Golden Razz Berries. Note that there are 3 guaranteed Golden Razz Berries that do not count towards bundles.The new systemNow let's look at the new system. As a TL;DR version of the post mentioned above:Speed Bonus does not count towards reward bundles.The maximum number of reward bundles is still 8, but now you get 1 bundle per ball (capped at 8), instead of 1 bundle every 2 balls.In other words, here's the new premier ball breakdown:Boss defeated: 6Individual bonus: 3Gym control: 2Speed bonus: 5Friendship: 4Max balls: 20, Max rewardable balls: 11And here is how the number of reward bundles is determined: (This seems to apply to both T5 raids and Mega raids; u/dieselmachine's post is heavily mega-centric so there might be some inconsistencies with T5 raids, but since the bundle distribution for T4 and T5 raids used to be the same and Mega raids use the current T3, old T4 reward pool, I assume the conclusions work for T5 raids as well)Rewardable balls678910-11Reward bundles45678Note that 10 and 11 rewardable balls both give the maximum number of balls, just like before. In other words, missing out on 1 single rewardable ball doesn't affect reward bundles.It appears that the contents of each bundle is still not changed.Impacts on item reward bundlesFor shortmanners who always maximize their damage bonuses, this new reward system has literally NO impact on the item rewards.Assuming all players in the small raid group get 3 individual damage balls, with gym control:Players on the majority team used to get 14 rewardable balls (3 team bonus) for 8 bundles in the old system. Now they get 11 rewardable balls for 8 bundles in the new system. No change.Players on the minority team used to get 13 rewardable balls (2 team bonus) for 8 bundles in the old system. Now they get 11 rewardable balls for 8 bundles in the new system. No change.And without gym control:Players on the majority team used to get 12 rewardable balls (3 team bonus) for 7 bundles in the old system. Now they get 9 rewardable balls for 7 bundles in the new system. No change.Players on the minority team used to get 11 rewardable balls (2 team bonus) for 7 bundles in the old system. Now they get 9 rewardable balls for 7 bundles in the new system. No change.In every single scenario, shortmanners still get the same number of bundles as before.For players in huge lobbies, especially those on majority teams, Gym Control is now crucial, and Individual Damage also matters more.Majority team, with Gym control:Players who get only 1 damage ball used to get 12 rewardable balls for 7 bundles. Now they get 9 rewardable balls for 7 bundles. No change.Players who get 2 damage balls used to get 13 rewardable balls for 8 bundles. Now they get 10 rewardable balls for 8 bundles. No change.Majority team, without Gym control:Players who get only 1 damage ball used to get 10 rewardable balls for 6 bundles. Now they get 7 rewardable balls for 5 bundles. Nerf.Players who get 2 damage balls used to get 11 rewardable balls for 7 bundles. Now they get 8 rewardable balls for 6 bundles. Nerf.Medium-popularity team (2 team balls), with Gym control:Players who get only 1 damage ball used to get 11 rewardable balls for 7 bundles. Now they get 9 rewardable balls for 7 bundles. No change.Players who get 2 damage balls used to get 12 rewardable balls for 7 bundles. Now they get 10 rewardable balls for 8 bundles. Buffed!Medium-popularity team (2 team balls), without Gym control:Players who get only 1 damage ball used to get 9 rewardable balls for 6 bundles. Now they get 7 rewardable balls for 5 bundles. Nerfed.Players who get 2 damage balls used to get 10 rewardable balls for 6 bundles. Now they get 8 rewardable balls for 6 bundles. No change.Minority team (1 team ball), with Gym control:Players who get only 1 damage ball used to get 10 rewardable balls for 6 bundles. Now they get 9 rewardable balls for 7 bundles. Buffed!Players who get 2 damage balls used to get 11 rewardable balls for 7 bundles. Now they get 10 rewardable balls for 8 bundles. Buffed!Minority team (1 team ball), without Gym control:Players who get only 1 damage ball used to get 8 rewardable balls for 5 bundles. Now they get 7 rewardable balls for 5 bundles. No change.Players who get 2 damage balls used to get 9 rewardable balls for 6 bundles. Now they get 8 rewardable balls for 6 bundles. No change.I know this is messy, but some quick conclusions from this:Gym control clearly matters more, and can flip the scenario from the same rewards to a nerf. This is because in the old system gym control only contributed 1 bundle, but now it can give 2 extra bundles for those without top-tier individual bonus.Individual bonus also matters slightly more. Gaining 1 more individual ball only matters half the time in the old system, but now it always gives 1 extra bundle unless you're already maxed out on bundles.As expected, the new system benefits minority team players the most. They're unlikely to see any significant reward nerf.Impacts on total number of Premier BallsI'm not gonna elaborate too much on this, since my article is focused on item rewards. By no means am I saying premier balls don't have value - sometimes it can make a difference between catching a 100% on the last ball and having it run away. But the difference a few extra balls make is typically small, and diminishing returns kicks in quickly.Nevertheless, let's think of a shortmanner who used to always get the maximum number of balls (18).For a tough duo/trio where they need nearly 100% of the time, they now have 16 Premier Balls (1 Speed ball). Nerf by 2 balls.For an easier duo/trio (think Heatran, Virizion, Giratina-A etc) where they need 75% of the time, they now have 17 Premier Balls (2 Speed balls). Nerf by 1 ball.These numbers change if the player is on the minority team who could only get 2 Team Bonus balls, making the nerf slightly less bad or even out.So the Speed Bonus is almost always a nerf on Premier Balls in terms of shortmanning. Which is exactly what you would expect.ConclusionAs we have seen, even though shortmanners get 1 or 2 fewer Premier Balls than before, they still get exactly the same number of item rewards in almost all cases. The difference only shows up for players in large raid groups: while they might get more Premier Balls due to the Speed Bonus, they typically end up with fewer item rewards (depending on their team). In other words, the new system presents a choice (for those who can afford to make a choice): ~~Raid in large groups for more Premier Balls, ~~or raid in small groups for more item rewards. (Edit: See this post - number of players doesn't really have an impact on the number of balls.)My thoughts: The new reward system isn't nearly as bad as what people thought, even though it still has slight negative impacts on shortmanners in terms of balls. While undeniably some people shortman raids to maximize their chance at catching the legendary, I believe most people who regularly use their free passes to duo/trio every legendary raid do it mainly for the item rewards; or they do it for shiny hunting, where the number of balls is irrelevant. These players can continue to shortman raids while enjoying the same amount of items they always got.We can also see that Gym Control and Individual Damage matter more in large groups, since each Premier Ball is "worth" more bundles. In my opinion, this means players in medium-sized groups have even more incentive to power up good counters so that they can aim for 2 damage balls, which will give them another reward bundle more often than not.It should be noted that some of these tradeoffs will differ in Mega Raids. If you do Mega Raids for the Mega Energy (which most people do), it's always the best to raid in as large of a group as possible for maximum speed and thus maximum energy rewards. That also means you're missing out on item reward bundles, but honestly if you do Mega raids just for rewards, why not just do a T3 instead?Edit: Here is another excellent analysis that contained most of what I said and more. However, despite having the right numbers, that OP incorrectly concluded that missing out on 1 Premier Ball makes you lose a bundle in non-mega raids, which is not true. via /r/TheSilphRoad https://ift.tt/31DTqpW