"Game Freak, TPC, and the future of the franchise"

This post is partly based on, and a response to, the latest video by Lockstin & Gnoggin. I recommend checking it out, but it's not required. This post will recap the relevant bits.I do however want to highlight this brief segment from the video (timecoded) as an intro to my post.​https://ift.tt/2K7Ew1h at this point we have to start asking the bigger questions. It's not about what Game Freak did or didn't do in developing SwSh, it's about The Pokémon Company and their entire business model.Game Freak was never able to do more than they have. First there is the time frame, which is limited by the start and end point of a new generation, which lasts 3 years. They have to ship this holiday because every other arm of the franchise, from merchandise to anime and TCG, depends on it. This is a limit set by TPC. And in the last 3 years they needed to make 2 other Pokemon games, as well.So you have ~100 people, 2+ years and an estimated budget of $20 million1. Against a guaranteed average gross of well over $600 million2. This is a level of greed that is unprecedented in games development (outside the realm of MTX). No other AAA franchise has a budget this low compared to a profit this high. The margins are insane.Now, I'm not saying other companies wouldn't try the same if they could get away with it.But they can't. Ubisoft has to deliver a graphically impressive experience every time. So they have no choice but to put 1,000 developers on Assassin's Creed and wow people. And they can! They can spend that much and still be one of the most profitable franchises around. (Even in the days before MTX were added)But Pokémon? No. It's Pokémon.They only need to put a cutout of a yellow mouse on a Windows XP background on the box and sell 10 million copies by Christmas.By comparison, 10 million were the projected and hoped-for sales for Final Fantasy XV. That's what Square was aiming for after 10 years of trying to get that thing out the door. And with 2 platforms that have a combined install base of twice the 3DS and 4x the Switch, an additional PC port and transmedia content up the wazoo, they managed to get to 8.4 million after 2 years.Still a decent success in the world of AAA.And what about other non-AAA JRPGs? Dragon Quest, Ni No Kuni, Tales. These games sell a fraction of Pokémon, yet still have a higher production value. And why wouldn't they? They have to meet a certain standard in order to attract players.But Pokémon? No. It's Pokémon.Niantic was able to literally reskin a previous mobile game and put out a game where all you get to do is flick a Pokéball at 3D models they received from Creatures. And they have now grossed over $2 billion since launch. To get to that kind of revenue on a single product Marvel had to make 20 feature films first.Pokémon has got to be the most valuable IP in all of gaming.They could do anything they want. But why would you reach for the stars when you could be maximizing profits instead?https://ift.tt/32YFmpB bother?Why bother indeed. This is something I see brought up a lot recently. With the overwhelming success of GO some have asked the question why TPC bothers making these games at all. Pokémon Masters is coming and delivering an experience that could be seen as complementary to GO: Battling.Are these games threatening to replace traditional Pokémon games entirely? They seem to already have spin-offs on their conscience.Does Town exist solely to have a backup plan should Pokémon ever start to show diminishing returns?Was Game Freak's Let's GO an attempt to save their product from becoming less relevant to TPC?Maybe. But if it was, then it didn't really work. The GO audience didn't come to the Switch. And if some of it did, then it only managed to replace the core gamers that skipped the game, seeing as how sales didn't exceed those of the average Pokémon game and have yet to match them. (Though the most recent sales numbers are somewhat outdated by now)But regardless, sales of this series have been holding steady for well over a decade, with flagship titles selling 15-17 million and third versions around half that.So taking risks is really not something you want to be doing. Therefore they play it safe."Don't rock the boat, guys." - Ishihara probablyIf experimentation does happen, it happens only in the direction of attracting casual players and broadening mass appeal.Whether or not Game Freak has any cause to be worried about mobile, I can't say.But what is worrying is the impact lower sales might have. For the sake of argument, say this backlash DOES manage to put a small dent in sales. Would that actually have the desired outcome? Would it spur Game Freak into action and motivate TPC to start spending more? Or would it be perceived as decreasing interest Pokémon games of this nature?https://ift.tt/2K97qy8 game carried the 23 year hopes and dreams for a proper console Pokemon game on its back and it was never going to fulfill them. GF set out of do as much little as they can with what they are given.Whatever excuses they cook up to explain various shortcomings and the National Dex cut, they are not the problem, but symptomatic of the state of the Pokémon franchise at large.The X-Factor to me is Nintendo. They would just love to own Pokémon. It has sold their consoles for generations. And here is where I see a fundamental problem with the "mobile games take over" argument. People have been prophesizing as much in this industry for over a decade. It didn't happen. Core games sell to a completely different audience. The Venn Diagram isn't as large as people think. So there will always be a market for traditional games.Nintendo knows this, TPC knows this.That's why I don't buy into the whole mobile fear.Furthermore, TPC might be making much more money from its other divisions, but the games are still what keeps this franchise going. They determine the direction it takes, what the new Pokémon are, etc. They inform every other piece of content.If they are in trouble, the brand as a whole suffers.So here's a simple solution, if considered outlandish by many: Give it to Nintendo. Let them foot part of the bill and also profit off it more. Let them make a real game for core gamers and reap the benefits as every other division of TPC gets to capitalize off it.Honestly, those $600 million per game might sound like a lot, but it's a tiny slice in TPC's pie. Pokémon is valued at $90 billion, 2/3 of which is just the merchandise.https://ift.tt/32YFnd9 this is all just what if-scenarios and speculation. For now, there is no reason for anyone to change anything. It remains to be see if SwSh will do any lasting damage to the IP. We might be underestimating the share of core players contributing to sales.Or we might not be. In which case it's important to understand the root problems behind the current state of this franchise, which is, undeniably, on a qualitative downward trajectory. What we're seeing here this year is a jump from handheld to console without the necessary adjustment in production budget. The Switch might have done them in. They never wanted to develop for a system that outputs their shitty textures to a TV, but here we are. Will anything change? Who knows. But for now, we have plummeted to the bottom of the barrel of mishandled and undervalued gaming IPs. Say hello to our new neighbor Star Wars.--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------1 Estimation by Lockstin & Gnoggin2 16mio x $40, Nintendo games do not go down in price over time (This also means SwSh could make up to $1 billion)In case the video link at the top doesn't work (I used an external site to generate a link with start and end point), here is the video: https://youtu.be/H68BcOTahBw (Linked portion is from 20:10-21:24) via /r/pokemon https://ift.tt/2K7JnQa