"Using data to decide how many Pinaps to use on a raided Tyranitar"

#PokemonGO: I have just been Golden Razzing every Tyranitar I've raided, but having since seen that juicy juicy 20 candy notification for people who've pinapped them, I decided to calculate the cumulative odds of catching when you change the amount of Pinap Berries you use.I'm gonna show my working as I'm by no means a maths expert! So any mistakes please shout at me :).I used this infographic to get the catch odds: http://ift.tt/2xZGhbW the purposes of simplicity, I'm going to assume 1.5 Great throws, a curve bonus of 1.7 and a Gold badge bonus of 1.3. So for a single Premier Ball throw this gives us:Pinap = 1 - (1 -(0.05 / (2*0.597))) ^(1.5*1.7*1.3) = 0.1322GRB = 1 - (1 -(0.05 / (2*0.597))) ^(1.5*1.7*1.3*2.5) = 0.2985I then put the following formulae into a spreadsheet, which calculate the cumulative % chance of catching the Tyranitar assuming a certain number of premier balls, and the specified ball strategy.All GRB50% PinapAll Pinap=1-((1-{GBRProbability})^{#PremBalls})=1-(((1-{GBRProbability})^({#PremBalls}*0.5))*((1-{PinapProbability})^({#PremBalls}*0.5)))=1-((1-{Pinap})^{#PremBalls})And expanded it for all the possible premier ball numbers, and added a couple more columns to give:Prem. BallsAll G-Razz25% Pinap50% Pinap75% Pinap100% Pinap583%78%71%62%51%688%84%77%69%57%792%88%82%74%63%894%91%86%79%68%996%93%89%83%72%1097%95%92%86%76%1198%96%93%88%79%1299%97%95%90%82%1399%98%96%92%84%1499%99%97%93%86%Hope this helps people decide how many Pinaps they dare to use on Tyranitar! :)Edit: Probability is hard. I'm gonna ask a mathematician/statistician about the whole average candy thing. Might do another post about that at another time.Edit: For those wanting to know about maximising candy, check out u/GadzooksEgads comment here:http://ift.tt/2gcv26O via /r/TheSilphRoad http://ift.tt/2xXL5hY