"Why Aron nests are about to host Gen2 starters (and Kabuto) - a complete prediction of today's forced nest migration"

#PokemonGO: TL;DR: the table.Hoenn-onlyOption 1Option 2Option 3Option 4Option 5TreeckoBulbasaurCharmanderSquirtleCaterpieTorchicCaterpieWeedlePidgeyRattataSpearowMudkipSpearowEkansPikachuSandshrewNidoranFPoochyenaNidoranFNidoranMClefairyVulpixZigzagoonVulpixJigglypuffZubatOddishParasWurmpleParasVenonatDiglettMeowthPsyduckSeedotPsyduckMankeyGrowlithePoliwagAbraTaillowAbraMachopBellsproutTentacoolWingullTentacoolGeodudePonytaSlowpokeMagnemiteSurskitMagnemiteDoduoSeelShellderGastlyShroomishGastlyOnixDrowzeeKrabbyVoltorbWhismurVoltorbExeggcuteCuboneRhyhornMakuhitaRhyhornHorseaGoldeenStaryuScytherNosepassScytherJynxElectabuzzMagmarPinsirSkittyPinsirMagikarpEeveeOmanyteKabutoAronKabutoChikoritaCyndaquilTotodileMedititeTotodileSentretHoothootLedybaSpinarakElectrikeSpinarakChinchouNatuMarillHoppipGulpinHoppipAipomSunkernYanmaWooperCarvanhaWooperMisdreavusWobbuffetGirafarigWailmerGirafarigDunsparceSnubbullQwilfishShuckleNumelShuckleSneaselTeddiursaSlugmaSwinubSpoinkSwinubRemoraidHoundourTreeckoTorchicSwabluTorchicMudkipPoochyenaZigzagoonBarboachZigzagoonWurmpleSeedotTaillowWingullCorphishWingullSurskitShroomishWhismurMakuhitaBaltoyMakuhitaNosepassSkittyAronMedititeShuppetMedititeElectrikeGulpinCarvanhaDuskullCarvanhaWailmerNumelSpoinkSwabluSphealSwabluBarboachCorphishBaltoyShuppetLuvdiscShuppetDuskullSphealLuvdiscDEFINITION OF NESTA nest is a set of one or more (actually: zero or more) nest spawn points located in the same area, usually labeled as a park or a similar area in OpenStreetMap. There are threads on r/TheSilphRoad about the specific tags.A nest spawn point is a spawn point that:1) has a 25% probability of spawning the Nesting Species and a 75% probability of spawning something from its own biome (which may or may not include the Nesting Species);2) has its Nesting Species migrate, i.e. change, every two weeks (every other Thursday at 0:00 UTC) and every time the pool of nesting species is extended or reduced.LIST OF CURRENT NESTING SPECIESFor always up-to-date information, please refer to the Hopefully Ultimate List of Nesting and Non-Nesting Species maintained by me.There are currently 116 nesting species as of February 13, 2018.THE THEORYFor each nest, a uniformly distributed random variable between 0 and 1 gets multiplied by the number of nesting species (currently 116) and determines the nesting species at that particular nest.On "scheduled" migrations (every other Thursday at 0:00 UTC), the random variable is rerolled for every nest.On "forced" migrations due to a change in the number of nesting species, the variable stays the same and only the multiplier changes.HOW THE 46th MIGRATION WILL PROBABLY WORKWe currently have 31 nesting species (the Gen3 ones). The 0..1 range is therefore divided into 31 equally wide ranges. Now these ranges need to be mapped into 116 new ranges.Here are the Gen3 nesting species:Nest # (out of 31)Species1Treecko2Torchic3Mudkip4Poochyena5Zigzagoon6Wurmple7Seedot8Taillow9Wingull10Surskit11Shroomish12Whismur13Makuhita14Nosepass15Skitty16Aron17Meditite18Electrike19Gulpin20Carvanha21Wailmer22Numel23Spoink24Swablu25Barboach26Corphish27Baltoy28Shuppet29Duskull30Spheal31LuvdiscAnd here are all nesting species:Nest # (out of 116)Species1Bulbasaur2Charmander3Squirtle4Caterpie5Weedle6Pidgey7Rattata8Spearow9Ekans10Pikachu11Sandshrew12NidoranF13NidoranM14Clefairy15Vulpix16Jigglypuff17Zubat18Oddish19Paras20Venonat21Diglett22Meowth23Psyduck24Mankey25Growlithe26Poliwag27Abra28Machop29Bellsprout30Tentacool31Geodude32Ponyta33Slowpoke34Magnemite35Doduo36Seel37Shellder38Gastly39Onix40Drowzee41Krabby42Voltorb43Exeggcute44Cubone45Rhyhorn46Horsea47Goldeen48Staryu49Scyther50Jynx51Electabuzz52Magmar53Pinsir54Magikarp55Eevee56Omanyte57Kabuto58Chikorita59Cyndaquil60Totodile61Sentret62Hoothoot63Ledyba64Spinarak65Chinchou66Natu67Marill68Hoppip69Aipom70Sunkern71Yanma72Wooper73Misdreavus74Wobbuffet75Girafarig76Dunsparce77Snubbull78Qwilfish79Shuckle80Sneasel81Teddiursa82Slugma83Swinub84Remoraid85Houndour86Treecko87Torchic88Mudkip89Poochyena90Zigzagoon91Wurmple92Seedot93Taillow94Wingull95Surskit96Shroomish97Whismur98Makuhita99Nosepass100Skitty101Aron102Meditite103Electrike104Gulpin105Carvanha106Wailmer107Numel108Spoink109Swablu110Barboach111Corphish112Baltoy113Shuppet114Duskull115Spheal116LuvdiscSo here is the full 46th Migration table (same as the first table but with coefficients):Hoenn-onlyMin. coefficientMax. coefficientMin. Nest #Max. Nest #Option 1Option 2Option 3Option 4Option 5Treecko0.0000.03214BulbasaurCharmanderSquirtleCaterpieTorchic0.0320.06548CaterpieWeedlePidgeyRattataSpearowMudkip0.0650.097812SpearowEkansPikachuSandshrewNidoranFPoochyena0.0970.1291215NidoranFNidoranMClefairyVulpixZigzagoon0.1290.1611519VulpixJigglypuffZubatOddishParasWurmple0.1610.1941923ParasVenonatDiglettMeowthPsyduckSeedot0.1940.2262327PsyduckMankeyGrowlithePoliwagAbraTaillow0.2260.2582730AbraMachopBellsproutTentacoolWingull0.2580.2903034TentacoolGeodudePonytaSlowpokeMagnemiteSurskit0.2900.3233438MagnemiteDoduoSeelShellderGastlyShroomish0.3230.3553842GastlyOnixDrowzeeKrabbyVoltorbWhismur0.3550.3874245VoltorbExeggcuteCuboneRhyhornMakuhita0.3870.4194549RhyhornHorseaGoldeenStaryuScytherNosepass0.4190.4524953ScytherJynxElectabuzzMagmarPinsirSkitty0.4520.4845357PinsirMagikarpEeveeOmanyteKabutoAron0.4840.5165760KabutoChikoritaCyndaquilTotodileMeditite0.5160.5486064TotodileSentretHoothootLedybaSpinarakElectrike0.5480.5816468SpinarakChinchouNatuMarillHoppipGulpin0.5810.6136872HoppipAipomSunkernYanmaWooperCarvanha0.6130.6457275WooperMisdreavusWobbuffetGirafarigWailmer0.6450.6777579GirafarigDunsparceSnubbullQwilfishShuckleNumel0.6770.7107983ShuckleSneaselTeddiursaSlugmaSwinubSpoink0.7100.7428387SwinubRemoraidHoundourTreeckoTorchicSwablu0.7420.7748790TorchicMudkipPoochyenaZigzagoonBarboach0.7740.8069094ZigzagoonWurmpleSeedotTaillowWingullCorphish0.8060.8399498WingullSurskitShroomishWhismurMakuhitaBaltoy0.8390.87198102MakuhitaNosepassSkittyAronMedititeShuppet0.8710.903102105MedititeElectrikeGulpinCarvanhaDuskull0.9030.935105109CarvanhaWailmerNumelSpoinkSwabluSpheal0.9350.968109113SwabluBarboachCorphishBaltoyShuppetLuvdisc0.9681.000113116ShuppetDuskullSphealLuvdisc(Table in picture format)Please not that the "Nest #" is not the same as the Pokédex # because only nesting species are included.CREDITSThe discovery is not mine. Before I realized it myself, this theory was formulated by u/AstrakanX in this thread and a few hours later by u/kkmmdd in this other thread. via /r/TheSilphRoad http://ift.tt/2F1g0vE