"RNG and Probability PSA"

#PokemonGO: As a math major, and math teacher, I am always bothered by the incessant complaints or "discussions" by the uninformed about their "bad luck" or confusion regarding them receiving sinnoh stones, hatching rare mons, and every other RNG-based thing. This is not just a PoGo occurrence either as I find these "discussions" and "wonderings" occurring in almost every game I play. So here it goes...Probability, or the chance that an event will happen is very unpredictable in the short term and, because of that, unique situations can present themselves. For instance, if the "true probability" of receiving a sinnoh stone after a PvP battle is 1/10 (hypothetical), you will encounter a variety of results in the short term. Some people may receive 4-6 stones within the first 10 battles and some may not receive a stone until their 30th battle. The same thing is true for egg hatches, shiny encounters, and pretty much everything else in this game. That doesn't mean you are "unlucky" and that the system isn't working, that's just how short-term probability mapping works. Probability doesn't show its "true values" until extensive size samples are analyzed over the long term. This is why The Silph Road takes in hundreds of thousands of occurrences to calculate their data--which, in essence, takes time to collect. This is why you never see them release "the probability of X event is..." right when something new is possible.So please, if you haven't gotten as many sinnoh stones as your friends, haven't encountered that new shiny mon, haven't hatched the new babies yet, or any other possibility you may be angry about, relax and remember that it will come in time and we have all been there (i.e. I personally grinded for a "shiny kyogre" when it was in raids and went 0/70 and still haven't gotten one). The way Niantic has been operating lately, nothing is truly unique in this game and if you missed your shot the first time, there will be plenty of more chances in the future (see the recent reiteration of CD mon releases and Lugia/Ho-Oh for an example).​tl;dr: "RnGesus" is a fickle bitch and people need to calm down and enjoy the game for what it is because everyone will eventually get everything they want if they put in the time. via /r/pokemongo http://bit.ly/2EEvNmi